Wednesday, October 5, 2011

ADP Employment Report & Challenger, Gray N Christmas report

ADP Employment Report
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_September_11.pdf

Total nonfarm private……………91
Small (1-49)………………60
Medium (50-499)…………36
Large (> 499)………………-5
Goods-producing……………….. 1
Small (1-49)………………. 5
Medium (50-499)…………..4
Large (> 499)………………-8
Service-providing………………. 90
Small (1-49)……………….55
Medium (50-499)…………32
Large (> 499)………………3
Addendum:
Manufacturing………….…-5

My Thots & Observations.....
Again, Service Providing Industries was the driver for jobs growth; Goods Producing Industries crept up marginally with Manufacturing actually showing a 5K decline.
In terms of size, the Large firms have been holding back and the growth is driven by SMEs.

August private payrolls were revised down to an increase of 89,000 from the previously reported 91,000.


 Challenger, Gray N Christmas report
Employers announced plans to shed 115,730 workers from their payrolls in September, making it the worst jobcut month in over two years.

My Thots & Observations.....

Most are due to restructuring to improve efficiency.
1/3 of the layoffs announced this year came from government sector.
It is, by far, the largest job-cutting sector, with 159,588 but 50,000 of which are the result of a five-year troop reduction plan announced by the United States Army; restructuring Obama style,  as he cuts spending on troops. The figure for Sept  includes 54,182 government-sector .
 The second largest job-cutting sector to date is the financial sector, which announced 54,013 planned layoffs YTD. That is up 177 percent from the 19,474 job cuts recorded over the first three quarters of 2010. Of the 54,013 financial job cuts this year, 31,167 occurred in September, with 30,000 resulting from Bank of America’s multi-year workforce reduction plan aimed at saving the struggling bank $5 billion per year.
Not necessarily bad, IMHO, but it shows that the Unemployment is NOT cyclical but structural in nature. The US economy is restructuring and last nite plea by Bernanke for the US Congress and the Obama Admin to act ( ie. no cut in spending) is crucial and must be heeded. In fact , any additional fiscal stimulus targeted to aid those workers hurt must be forthcoming, if there are not to be severe dislocations.

1 comment:

qiaofeng said...

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm
Last nite, Non Mfg (NMI) or Services PMI Index was at 53.0%.
Business Activity Index at 57.1%
New Orders Index at 56.5%
Biz Activity and New orders wise, still strong However, the Employment Index at 48.7%, was lower and does not correlates with the ADP data.


"Wisdom is purified by virtue and virtue is purified by wisdom. Where one is, so is the other."