Showing posts with label PARD/CFG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PARD/CFG. Show all posts

Monday, March 5, 2012

SPRFMO

Article 1---- NYT article
Article 2 ----- Santiago Times article
Article 3---- Digital Journal article

Read the 3 articles and U have 3 different slants on the same subject.
If U check up the NYT article, U will realise the journalists were from ICIJ. Dig further and U realise the initiative is by Center for Public Integrity, a US based and funded organisation. For the NYT article, Chile is seen as the Good Guys and China & Russia, the bad guys.
The article by Santiago Times is more neutral and is probably the work of a Greenpeace activist.
The issues in the article by the Digital Journal is clouded by the EEZ dispute (see below).

By all accounts, there is a drastic depletion in the Trachurus Murphi  (let’s call CJM for Chilean Jack Mackerel for simplicity) stock. The NYT article, however, exaggerates the severity. It claims  “ Stocks have dropped from an estimated 30 million metric (mil m) tons to less than a tenth of that in two decades.” That is simply untrue; biomass stocks probably reached a peak of approx. 8mil mtons.
The article by Santiago Times points to Chile as the main offender. With Green Peace as the NGO involved, the figures and facts cited  look more believable.

Undeniably, there is a problem with the drastic depletion.

Who and what are the vested interests and how did all these come about?
Let’s investigate.
The CJM
Jack mackerel shows a clear pattern of movement towards the open sea outside the EEZ, with reproductive purposes, to then return and remain for the most part close to the coast for trophic (feeding) purposes. There are actually distinct species of jack mackerel in the North and the Centre south of Chile. But as the situation is critical, the scientists have chosen to lump the 2 together and consider as one specie for the sake of research and conservation. CJM are pelagic fishes meaning they live in the region of the oceans off the coast and the ocean floor.
Due to their feeding and spawning patterns, there is seasonality--- with the Centre-south having peak catches between April-July and the North having peaks at March.
Why SPFRMO?
Chile stands to gain most from any efforts to set up a fishery. Much of the recorded research are done by the Chileans ( funded 67 research projects and 2 large monitoring programs) on the CJM. In terms of catch proportions, Chile takes up more than 86% of all catch. Chilean landings reached a national maximum of 4.4 million tons(max  96% of total catch) in 1995. So clearly, from a standpoint of vested interests Chile benefited most from any efforts to set up a fishery with quota limits to prevent depletion.
Jack mackerel exploitation by Chilean went beyond the first 100 nautical miles (n.m.) in 1992 and, the incidence of catches recorded between the 100 n.m. and 200 n.m. area was higher than 30%. In 2002 - 2003 this extended to catches recorded outside the EEZ, including even up to 700 n.m. off the coast. Hence U can see that as availability decreased the Chileans were moving out further and in bigger ships. EEZ limit is 200nm according to the UN Law of the Sea.

What is SPRFMO?
The Chilean Monitoring programs use hydro acoustic studies to map the biomass.
As the T Murphi is considered a “Straddling stock”---meaning it migrates from the EEZ to the international waters---- the fishery set up for the CJM must by definition include both the EEZ and international waters.
So to sum up SPRFMO is needed as CJM spatial area involves international waters (territorial water stops at 12 nm), far beyond the EEZ, which is beyond Chilean jurisdiction.

Region included is in the shape of a T with the top of the horizontal T at the coast of Chile and the length of the T extending to NZ with the base up to Tasmania. The exact latitudes and longitudes are defined in the Convention documents.
The T Murphi is considered non-highly migratory----i.e. it migrates and straddles a large spatial area --- but that area is still possible to be mapped and conserved as a fishery. Hence the setup of the SPFRMO is a 1st step towards the conservation efforts.

There are a series of steps in setting up the SPRFMO:-
1) Signature and ratification
2) Period of Accession
3) Entry into force

The Convention shall enter into force 30 days after the date of the receipt by the Depositary of the 8th instrument of ratification, accession, acceptance or approval .

NZ (Auckland) was chosen as the Depositary and the venue for the 1st meeting held in Nov 2009.

Since then the SWG (Scientific Working Group) has had a series of 10 meetings in various places from Colombia, Vanuatu, Auckland, Santiago etc to thrash out the details.



Two key area of conservation efforts -----the T Murphi (CJM) and Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) as a result of Bottom Fishing  ( Benthic Impact Assessments)---- were targeted at.

The Good News is that the Final Report has been published  on 3rd Feb 2012 and the Conference adopted the present document as its final report on all matters within its mandate and decided to transmit the report to the Commission. Surprisingly, this important fact and good news is not followed up and publicised by the same reporters who covered and sensationalise the earlier story just before the SPRFMO meeting kicked off on 29 Jan 2012 and ended on 3rd Feb 2012.
Barring any last minute hiccups, most of the details especially wrt SWG have been worked out. The next stage will be the setup of “the Commission” with the aim of implementing the measures agreed with secretariat setup, budgeting, manpower etc.

Note that the EEZ itself is in dispute ; yet, to be resolved between Chile and Peru.
By taking sides with Chile, the NYT article loses objectivity. The T Murphi Fishery is in disarray and badly in need for repair of stocks i.e. conservation efforts. Confusing the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery with the T Murphi Fishery does no good as they are quite different issues. In fact, the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery is quite ably managed by IMARPE.

Until the Commission is set up there are Interim Measures that members must comply.
Gross Tonnage
Participants are to limit the gross tonnage (GT) of vessels flying their flag to those that have been actively fishing in 2007 or 2008 or 2009 in the Convention Area, and may substitute their vessels as long as the total level of GT that was submitted by Participants to the Interim Secretariat in accordance with the 2009 Interim Measures for Trachurus fisheries, as provided for in Table 1, is not exceeded.
Participants will verify the effective presence of their vessels referred to in paragraph 8 through VMS records and catch reports.
 From 4 February 2012, participants are not to exceed the levels of total GT1 listed in Table 1.

 Catch management
The Interim Secretariat shall verify the annual catch reports submitted by the Participants against the submitted data (tow by tow in the case of trawlers, and set by set or trip by trip in the case of purse-seining fishing vessels). The Interim Secretariat shall inform the Participants of the outcome of the verification exercise and any possible discrepancies encountered.

In 2012 Participants will continue their efforts to reduce their annual catches of Trachurus species. To that end, in 2012 Participants will limit their annual catches of Trachurus species by vessels flying their flag to the order of 40% of their final annual recorded catch of that species in 2010, and taking into account paragraph 1.3.

It is recognized that Participants may elect to reduce their catches of Trachurus species in 2012 by more than 60% of its final annual recorded catch of that species in 2010, as reported to the Interim Secretariat, as specified in paragraph 12.


 Some Salient Points
1)Effects of El NinoThe migratory patterns of the T Murphi  are believed to be affected by effects of El Nino and La Nina which affects the surface temperatures of the currents and hence their migratory patterns for spawning and feeding. But, for the moment there is insufficient scientific data by the Chileans to document the effects. IFFO (Peruvian Anchovy Fishery) has very well documented data on the effects of El Nino which affects the upwelling currents along the Peruvian Coast, affecting the trophic activities of phytoplankton;  in turn affecting the biomass of anchoveta that feeds on them--- which could then affect the entire food chain. It is a great  pity that the NYT article did not even mention EL Nino which is an important factor in its report.
2) Effects of the Chilean Earthquake of 2010- It is not understood how this massive earthquake and subsequent ones in 2011 affected the marine ecosystem on the Ocean floor and the migratory patterns of the CJM. Chile seats on a faultline (plate tectonics) and in 2011 itself experience earthquakes in Jan, Feb ( many times over 4 days), Mar, Apr, Jun, July and Dec. Nearby Peru had earthquakes in Aug and Oct.
3) T Murphi (CJM) not anchoveta- Contrary to the NYT article, the conservation efforts are not for anchoveta, which are not under threat. 

4) Previous Chilean Govt Efforts at reforming Fisheries to prevent OverFishing---- Prior to the coming SPRFMO setup which will come with an ITQ system for all Global participants, we must be alerted that previous Chilean Govt Efforts has form but no spirit in its implementation---- has largely failed due to powerful lobby groups, weak enforcement and constitutional issues with implementing legislation.

5) CFG (China Fishery Group) ---- Is joining the the SPRFMO via the Russian allocation.  Note that even their ITQ allocation for Alaskan Pollock in the North Pacific is allocated via Russian ownership. CFG will have to abide by the rules and regulations agreed in the Convention and as governed by the Commission. Many confuse CFG as being a China company; in fact they fish under the Russian fleet.

6) ITQ System----- The merits of having an ITQ system is discussed in this paper by Ragnar Arnason. ITQs constitute property rights in harvest not fishing stock. Under ITQs, good management consists of setting:
 (i) the total allowable catch (TAC),
 (ii) other useful fisheries management instruments,
 (iii) the enforcement of the quota constraints, and
(iv) the supporting research at levels where their return from the fishery is maximized.

The key is when the vested interests of the fishery members who own the ITQs coincide with their collective interest to maximise their long term sustainable holdings in their ITQs.

If the fishing industry which are the ITQ holders have to conduct fisheries management themselves,
their collective incentive is to maximize the net return from the fishery vs the government as the provider of the fisheries management services----the economic return to the industry is independent of the fisheries management costs ---- and in the 1990s, Ministry of Fisheries in countries like Peru and Chile can end up subsidising the entire fishing industry and suffering a net loss on a national scale. Hence, some of the biggest headaches whereby common property (public) rights are not respected but abused and be subject to political lobbies and favouritism are removed. 

7) Olympic System---- Prior to the ITQ system Peru and Chile practises the Olympic System – whereby at the start of the season upon blowing of the whistle, all vessels rush in frenzy to scoop as much fish into their holds as possible; w/o regard for refrigeration or death of the fish. This leads to staggering wastage and overfishing, as the dead carcasses of stale fish are just thrown overboard. The frenzy makes the fishing season front loaded with short bursts and makes for poor planning and efficiency both in terms of fishing and processing. The description in the NYT about boiling blood of CJM; as a result of the Olympic system  is not off the mark. Cheating on weights and trading of the excess catch unsurprisingly was rampant---given the frenzied rush effects-- officials find it difficult to measure and monitor that the allowable catch limits and quotas are conformed.

8) Case studies of successful ITQs (or variants) ----- Iceland has successfully introduced the ITQ system for Herring and Capelin but NOT for Demerol. Even Peru, has since 2009 introduced an IVQ (variant) with considerable success----- with satellite tracking systems onboard fishing vessels and independent audit staff also onboard for proper verification and validation of processes. So IMHO, the NYT article  has been biased in trying to point the finger at CFG or China, Russia or Peru----- much of the damage in Chile has been self-inflicted due to weaknesses in the conflicted government controlled implementations. Is China interested in ITQs? ---- You bet;  as shown in this paper by Dalian Fishery University. Incidentally, CFG is a part of the ITQ system for anchoveta in Peru---- which is undergoing volatilities/fluctuation in biomass arising from the El Nino/La Nina effects.

Some obvious benefits of the ITQ system are the reduction in the number of Overall Catch Vessels and the higher efficiency of catch and higher efficiency in processing of the fish.

9) SPRFMO Commission---- This is privatised self-management by the Industry (involving 15 sovereign states ) as distinct from the government of the day (as in Chile). The merits are argued in a report put up by Icelander Arnason. Once set-up the problems of government succumbing to fettered interests will cease. SPFRMO is industry and privately led -----such privately led Fisheries with ITQs such as the Alaskan Pollock Fishery in the North Pacific, Herring and Capelin Fisheries in Iceland and the Anchoveta Fishery in Peru have proven that the SPFRMO mandates on GroundFish and T Murphi can work.
From initiation in 2006 to 2013 (likely date of implementation), the SPFRMO has held many sessions and the tough and hard slog in the consensus building and negotiation processes is coming to a close in the fruition of a Commission.  Negotiations and compromises amongst so many countries (15 states and some surrounding islands affected) are never easy. Using the media to gain mileage and skew voting is part and parcel of the process.
The key question is whether post-Chilean earthquake and post El Nino/La Nina, the T Murphi will return with larger recruitments as a result of resumption in spawning habits and further events like the above 2 that affects mortality rates will recede.
10) Factory vessel Lafayette and Fleet ----In its desire to increase efficiency and reduce wastage CFG has introduced a quantum change in the manner which fishing is done. Instead of having a supertrawler that catches fish and then return to shore. CFG has broken the fishing process into 3. The trawler/catcher vessels catch the fish. The fishes from the catcher vessels are then sucked up into the factory vessel and instantly frozen to keep the fish fresh. Reefer vessels transport the frozen catch back to shore and also bring supplies, crew and bunker to the factory vessel and the catcher vessels. In this way, the factory vessel can stay out at sea/ocean throughout the year. Crew and Fuel costs are lowered thru such an arrangement as trips are reduced. The Lafayette by design has to be large since it has to accommodate the catch of many vessels. CFG invested in a fleet of 7 catcher vessels and 5 upgraded supertrawlers (freezing capacity of 150mT/d) and the Lafayette (1500mT/d) for the purpose of securing SPRFMO ITQs in 2009. A total of more than USD 100m in capex was spend . But, depressed catches due to the El Nino and Chilean earthquakes has meant that the fleet could not justify the cash burn. Since then the vessels have been deployed to Faroe Islands and Mauritania to catch species like horse mackerel, sardines and herring .

Most of the Chinese owned and Dutch ships who were attracted to the SPRFMO, to stake their ITQs have since left because it is simply not viable to keep a fleet there when the CJM stock are so scarce. Please note that this is a prime example of aligning  vested self interest with collective interests-----Overfish and the stock depletes--- ITQs becomes worthless  and huge capex spend becomes redundant ----- Hence, there is great incentive for private holders of the ITQ system to take care of their collective interest of mantaining a sustainable stock based on the findings of the SWG (Scientific Working Group).

There are quibbles over the way the SWG arrives at its TAC (Total Allowable Catch) advisory figures.
But, this is unnecessary and futile. Due to the emergency status, the SWG uses past 5 year recruitment data furnished by Chile and assumed mortality rates to "pluck" into their models before arriving at the TAC figures/outcomes and must necessarily err on the side of safety to help bring the T Murphi levels back.

11) CFG/PARD Group ----That the Lafayette and CFG has roused the envy and the jealousy of others is no surprise.The PAH Group has eclipsed others to become the No 1 Fishing listco in the world.

Some positives:-

MSC certification ---The CFG and PAH Group is also applying for MSC Certification to ensure traceability of their catches to the Fisheries concerned----starting with Alaskan Pollock. That certification is expected to have been obtained by this year but may drag to next year. Anybody associated say with the pharmaceutical industry will know that FDA inspectors are far more stringent in granting product and facilities certification for foreign domiciled firms  than for  domestic US  firms----- they have the weight of US workers jobs and US domestic firms business on their shoulders. Similarly MSC certification for the Hongdao facilities and for the AP fishery may take longer than first expected. Once certified, CFG/PARD caught and processed Alaskan Pollock fillet should be able to sell in most  MSC conforming bizs--- e.g. Walmart, McDonalds, Long Johnsilvers, Burger King etc.

Mapping of biomass--CFG has set up a CSR committee and has engaged an expert Dr Keith Sainsbury. To augment and improve reliability CFG vessels with latest satellite tracking and sonar devices will help track biomass patterns in the SPRFMO. see empea.
Satellite monitoring as is done for the Peruvian Fishery can help improve  and augment scientifc data which the SPRFMO  has been depending on the Chilean ; as the primary and only source.
Reducing wastage --CFG/PARD Group has pioneered many ways to improve the catch ( as explained above) and fish processing industry ---- reduction in wastage  in terms of fish parts almost 99% including fish bones.
Human Consumption --The fish eating population in the Western world has been known to be picky--- preferring white fish such as cod, trout and salmon which can be filleted and have very few bones. Many of the fishes such as Alaskan Pollock and T Murphi were first used for fishmeal processing for the Salmon industry and other feedstock purposes. CFG/PARD has sought to change the game by selling them for human consumption----- even for the anchoveta!  In fact, CFG competitor TASA has come up with a fishmeal patty omega-3 burger!!
CFG and  PARD have been harvesting these previously fishmeal designated species and converting them into forms suitable for human consumption.  CFG pioneered the double hand lay fillet double frozen Alaskan Pollock (onboard  modified supertrawlers) and changed the way the westerners fished and processed the fish fillet--- in fact  modifying their eating habits---since there is now acceptance of frozen fish (formerly the Westerners only consume freshly caught AP). They also opened up the West African market for fish such as Chilean Jack Mackerel, Horse Mackerel, Herring, Sardines etc. for fish species that were formerly destined just for fishmeal.
As an industry leader its success will attract attention and one might say even envy and jealousy.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

PARD

 PARD SGX announcement

1st tranche
19.76%  was acquired at AUD 1.78.


2nd tranche
3% at AUD 1.58.

Great Buy.
Management  looking for a substantial stake above 30%, in Tassal?

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

CFG/PARD

New Acquisitions in Peru





China Fishery’s fishing quota further increase to 6.21% in North Peru and 11.72% in South Peru.
Assets of the two Peruvian fishing companies include two fishing vessels and one fishmeal processing plant.

______________________

My Thots....

The key word here is ITQ, Individual Transferable Quotas.
Ownership of the ITQs provide exclusive rights to a portion of the TAC ( Total Allowable Catch) in the respective fishery, every year.
As prices of fish rise each year due to inflation and increasing demand from West Africa and aquaculture needs, the ITQs  are expected to rise in value.

For more on ITQs,
see

http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-Rpt-KroetzSanchirico.pdf

https://ioes.hi.is/.../Arnason%20-Building%20on%20ITQs.pptx

Thursday, September 29, 2011

PARD/ CFG (Pacific Andes Resources Dev & China Fishery Group)



Yr 2009 Posts


Old CNA Forum(Salvaged)

Posted by fishfish

 http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=90606&sid=26103840&con_type=1



tap fishing grounds in the North and South Atlantic and plans to expand its distribution network in eastern Europe and the United States through acquisitions.
"Now is a better time for acquisitions because of the financial tsunami and we are in talks with potential sellers from time to time," managing director and vice chairman Ng Joo-siang said in Qingdao. He did not reveal the budget the company has put aside for acquisitions.

"As long as our gearing ratio can stay below 100 percent, we will still go ahead when there is a good acquisition opportunity," Ng said.

Amid criticism of the company's debts, Ng said the gearing ratio could be reduced to 60 percent next year from its current 80 percent if there are no new investment expenditures. He said the company is "comfortable" with the current gearing ratio.

The profit margin of its fishery business could reach 50 percent in five years from 35 percent, helped by its flagship fishing vessel, which will be operational by next month, Ng said.

Pacific Andes, which holds 42 percent of Singapore-listed China Fishery, invested US$100 million (HK$780 million) in transforming a tanker into the fishing vessel Lafayette, that is expected to haul in 300,000 tonnes of fish a year.

The holding company, mainly engaged in processing and distributing frozen fish, also aims to expand its distribution network.

"We hope to penetrate all supermarket chains in the US and enter eastern Europe through acquisitions," Ng said.

The company currently supplies frozen fish to 22 US supermarket chains. Profit margin of distributing products directly to retailers is 24-30 percent.

The new processing factory in Qingdao could save production cost of at least US$100 per tonne of frozen fish on lower water consumption, while labor productivity can be raised by 20 percent with the new equipment, Ng said.

"The cost of sales can be reduced to US$500 to US$600, from the current US$600 to US$700 per tonne," he said.

The processing factory, which has a capacity of 60,000 tonnes of frozen fish fillets a year, cost Pacific Andes US$100 million.



Fish fish...

PARD (some CFGs) forms a part (NOT insignificant) of my portfolio allocated to holdings considered "W-i-p" (work-in-progress).... those with potential to be "Biggies" due to certain monopolistic type advantages in their franchise... I am bullish about PARD & CFG, in fact the PA Group...

From this article it appears PAIH (NOT PARD) is on the prowl...

OR am I wrong? fishfish?

PAIH has the Hongdao frozen fish processing unit coming on stream with significant advantages ...
- MSC (Marine Stewardship Council) certification
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=48548&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=2540
- With MSC certification.... margins can go substantially higher for the low margin fish processing & trading biz... from the current net profit margins (NPMs) of 6 to 8% ( correct me if I am wrong fishfish) to higher
- the margins figure 24-30% for going direct to retailers bypassing the distributors & wholesalers, given by Ng JS in the above article is for GPM (Gross Profit margin)....I am guessing...
Given also that..
- savings of USD100/tonne for production costs arising from savings in water consumption & another
- COS (cost of sales) is down 12%
- labor productivity raised 20%..
This is a potential game changer since PAIH & PARD (takes care of distribution) can now target the European mkts with this MSC competitive marketing edge/tool to sell direct to the 22 US supermarket chains...


Driving NPMs to 12-15%?



The profit margin for CFG due to Lafayette of 50% given by Ng JS is GPM (if I am not wrong) .... so that will drive NPMs to 30-35% from current 25%?

Other potential catalysts...
see previous posts...
most will come onstream this Q or later Qs...
if there are no surprises...

DYOR...M1cG...DNAITB

PARD/ CFG (Pacific Andes Resources Dev & China Fishery Group)


Yr 2009 Posts

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 11:32 am Post subject:
Posted by fishfish
try to estimate the catching volume of Pollock announced in Aug. to see if CFG has a higer quota portion in Okhotsk sea. the average is about 20% of the total quota.

Okhotsk sea
2007=511000
2008=697500
2009=869400
2010=1058400

Baring sea west
2007=619400
2008=555700
2009=418000
2010=418000

USA pollock quota seems cannot increase at Baring sea east as Baring sea west is the same fo 2009 & 2010




posted: Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:44 am Post subject: Pac Andes/CFG....

Posted by qiaofeng

Grand Strategy (GS) In Execution...

PA Group management has shown remarkable biz acumen, timeliness & incisive actions at appropriate junctures in this execution...

Let me try to decipher...

Long term Strategy...
Target sustainable untapped Ocean based resources...
Buy over the existing VOAs which carries the fishing permits & rights plus ITQ when awarded...
Take AP (Alaskan Pollock)....
VOAs 1, 2 & 3 ... totals 17 super trawlers vessels... under prepaid Deferred Charter Hire arrangements
VOAs 4..... another 6 super trawlers vessels... under Variable + Fixed Charter Hires payable yearly & as proportion of Profit..
With this CFG gets 20% of the TAC...as ITQ....
Take Peruvian Fishmeal...
Buy 39 Purse seine fishing vessels & 8 fishmeal processing plants...
Part of the Buy 1 get 1 Offer... they get 5% of the TAC for Peruvian anchovy as their ITQ when the switch from Olympic system occured...
Now target South Paciifc CJM... Hmmn... am I saying too much....
U figure...

Next...
Bring in the typical PA Group efficiency & "towards zero" wastage mantra...
For AP...
U get double frozen hand lay deboned fillet, with 98-99% recovery of the Pollock, I read...
Super trawlers out at sea... that semi process the fish and then double freeze it...
Reefer vessels to refuel them at sea, supply & logistic refrigerated vessels that can transport the deheaded, degutted fish back to port so that the super trawlers can be more efficient & longer at sea, minus the many trips(save fuels) ...
For Peruvian fishmeal...
Cut down the Purse Seine vessels deployed..
reduce the number of fishmeal processing plants, upgrade & restructure the fishmeal processes ... improve the steam drying process, use fresher spaced out anchovies catches to get better quality fishmeal/fishoil...
Maybe even sort anchovies for canning & human consumption for some of these plants...
Make sure that even the heads & tails (25% of the fish mass) be harnessed to reduce wastage..
And U get EBIDTA up at 56.2% 2QFY09, UP 20.2% yoy (vs 36% 2QFY08)...

Next ...
Home in on the efficiency of the super trawlers & fishing vessels, now that the ITQs are in the bag...
Reason ?
Bunkerage costs has been high as % of Cost of Sales, as much as 21.1% in FY2008 for CFG..
Situation
U have 26 trawlers in Russian waters in North Pacific, essentially very busy in 1-2 Qs.... but otherwise relaxed in others...
Actions?
Modify & convert them into catcher vessels for South Pacific operations...
Put one factory vessel amongst the five catcher vessels.... to increase efficiency & reduce wastage out at sea ...
Maybe get another Reefer vessel... & have supply & logistics vessels to reduce time wasted travelling....
So the fishing vessels becomes more efficient as the numbers used at North Pacific is deployed elsewhere.... Of the original 26 trawlers.... if 9 get modified & shifted South... U have just 17 left... i.e 17 doing the work of previous 26...
Of the 17, say the ITQs are spread out over more Qs.. as with current rollovers to 4th Q, then the numbers can go down further to say 14? with longer stays out at sea..?
Hence "Cost of sales" decrease as bunker usage reduces... (12.1% of Sales cf 17% last yr partially due to lower price of bunker)... Repairs, Maintenance, Crew wages, all drops... even the Charter Hire is cut to bare bone ( close to fixed charter 20%) at 20.1%...
And when the ITQ system comes for South Pacific, CFG will be poised for the conversion... 12 converted trawlers from the North, one factory vessel & one Reefer vessel?

Simultaneously...
Increase the supply, logistics, processing & distribution chain Knowhow..
Acquire new competencies, new competitive edges for mkt penetration..
Built the largest high tech FDA standard fillet processing plant in Hongdao..
Pursue MSC ( Marine Stewardship council) certification... for fishery & end to end traceability...
Grab a significant share of the China mkts ( fastest growing)...
Pursue niche Japanese/Korean mkts like AP roe (making use of every part to reduce wastage)..
Pursue African & European mkts...to diversify risks..

But wait... the GFC tsunami hits...!!
So Short term tinkering needs to be done to the strategy...

PAH
Sell lower margins mix.. sell more AP, less fish roe etc... (to keep price at USD 8000/ tonne range for fish roe ?)...
Raise funds via rights to fund working capital...
to underpin the supply & logistic & trading chain...
the lifeblood but always "overlooked" & neglected factor in a trading & SCM biz...
Use it to pay down short term revolving loans..& reduce gearing...


CFG
Inventories of fishmeal hit by GFC price collapse sold to PAH as IPT...
Spread out utilisation of vessels & ITQ over the year...
- instead of flooding Japanese/Korean mkts with expensive roe in a GFC , rollover to the 4th Q...
- similarly with AP, part of the ITQ is rolled over to the 4th Q...
So in the 4th Q... CFG can use less vessels & spread over a longer fishing excursion...
Most of the Capex for South Paciifc looks done... unless there are new acquisitions to the 1 factory ( converted supertanker) & 5 converted trawlers...
Revenues flows start from July...
Strong Operating margins & Operating Cashflows of the Biz model is sufficient to pay down the essentially long term debt funding structure here

My appreciation & grasp of this Grand Strategy is perhaps shallow & sporadic ...
as I do not know the management enuf...& have NOT good, only an asymmetric access to the insider info set...
However, I am beginning to savour their business savvy, more & more...

What can we expect from this GS?
Better improving efficiency, lower wastage, higher quality products leading to higher ASPs, higher margins & lower costs..
This Q results from PAH & CFG testify to the brillant execution to-date... even under extreme stress...
There is much more to come... CJM catch just started in July & continues as we speak.....
Season for CJM ends late Nov, early Dec...

BTW...
Did U guys notice the same date for announcement of PAH/CFG results?
Alignment of the PA Grp to cut waste & reduce inefficiencies is ongoing...







Posted: Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:37 pm Post subject:

Posted by fishfish
qiaofeng,

Have your increase your holding of PARD?
PARD is under-value and will be become normal-value later, sane as PAIH


vessel Lafayette invested US$100 million ,expected to haul in 300,000 tonnes of fish a year.
This is a new fishing method can save fuel 35 tons daily and 300 workers also can be saved. The profit margin of its fishery business could reach 50 percent in five years from 35 percent


早前集團投資約一億美元巨型的加工與捕撈船—拉法葉號,將在近期完成改裝後投入服務,該船全長228米,寬32米,擁有巨大的燃油與潤滑油容量,可以長年在海上作業。 新購加工捕撈船添財源  拉法葉號配備32個魚艙,利用冷卻至0℃的海水儲存漁獲。同時,該船可容納14,000噸漁獲的冷藏貨艙及232台直立式平板冷凍機,每天可加工處理1,500噸魚。與傳統的拖網加工漁船的模式相比,不但每天節省35噸燃料,亦可大幅減少300名船員,故相信拉法葉號將為集團帶來可觀回報。

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=90606&sid=26103840&con_type=1

PARD/ CFG (Pacific Andes Resources Dev & China Fishery Group)

Old Posts from CNA Forum


Some of the old posts I managed to salvage from the old CNA Forum before they did the switch.



Yr 2010

Alaskan Pollock (AP) Operation & Updates...
Russian scientists have indicated that the (Russia) quota for Alaska Pollock could increase by 200k mt to 1.7mil mt in 2010
Russian stocks in Sea of Okhotsk rising whilst US stocks in Bering Sea & Aleutian Islands dropping..
Note Russia/Far East supplies likely accounts for 63% of world total AP... in 2009..
Price chart trending up


Peruvian Fishmeal Opns Effect of El Nino..
Catch volumes may drop as anchovies stay deeper in warmer waters..
and Purse seine fishing only skims the surface..
price may rise however due to lower supply..
Price chart trending up..


Chilean Jack Mackerel (CJM) Updates
6 vessels to be deployed
5 fishing supertrawlers & 1 factory vessel




Potential ...
Max based on factory vessel
1500 mt/day based on max freezing capacity
Current FOB price for Jack Mackerel is US$750/mt.
Assume 8 active months of fishing... Mar to Oct/Nov every year
we have 1500 mt/day x USD 750/mt x 8 mths x 30 days
= USD 270 mil per yr..... OR 360,000 mt/yr




Max based on supertrawler capacities
5 x 150mt/day x USD 750/ mt x 8 mths x 30 days
= USD 135 mil per yr....or 180,000 mt/yr
Super trawlers will be limiting w/o the factory ship...
With factory ship, supertrawlers can make 2 trips per day to the factory, hence factory becomes the limiting factor...
The figures estimated compares well with those in report below, based on 4 trawlers & 1 factory vessel..
... http://www.sbie2capital.com/research/pdf/CFG%20(update)%20290508.pdf

Conservative estimate ...
say only 50% potential realised ...
Revenues
Take USD 270 mil/yr x 50%... = USD 135 mil
Net Profit
assume net margins of 20% (much less than AP) & we have a potential net profit contribution of0.2 x USD 135 mil
= USD 27 mil.... due to CJM alone..
So FY 2010 onwards, profits at PAH/CFG may takeoff, if all goes well...
Nice map showing migration patterns of CJM..


Debt maturity
Debt maturity Profiles summarized..
60% due to Senior Notes due in Dec 2013
17% short term loans due on 2010 easily covered by reccuring Op Profits
CFG Gearing is 0.89 times..
PAH Gearing to improve Post rights
PAH gearing drops to 0.6 from 0.9, post the rights issue..
http://www.remisiers.org/research/Pacific%20Andes-090703-OIR.pdf
Institutional resistance due to gearing overhang should no longer factor after the rights issue...
Will the stocks PAH/CFG climb as a result...?

2010 PEs
CFG 4.5
PAH 3.6
Both does not include CJM, AP & fishmeal updated projections...

"Wisdom is purified by virtue and virtue is purified by wisdom. Where one is, so is the other."