Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Nouriel Roubini

Debt reduction
Roubini says the debt reduction program with bondholders is unfair. He prescribes that Greece leaders, either uses or take the route of default , so as to "force" the bondholders into bigger haircuts; i.e. force-negotiate brinkmanship style, at least a 50% debt relief to the country.

Restoring competitiveness so as to retrun to growth
Roubini argues that this can only be done by leaving the monetary union so as to allow a return to a much devalued drachma.

Exit or NOT, Greece GDP is destined to fall; however an exit will lead to a faster recovery than years of deflation
He cites Argentina as an example whereby, the default led to a quicker recovery.

My Thots...
The biggest unpredictability is how the markets will react and how the Greeks themselves react?

I have my doubts....
The positives as he outlined appears to outweigh the negatives.
The question is can  an orderly breakup be possible, given the myriad of moving parts in Roubini's solution?
How do you negotiate, implement and make the market accept the transition from Euros to Drachmas in Greece itself and from a Eurozone with Greece,  to one w/o?
Once Greece leave, would the markets not expect a domino effect on the rest of Euroland eg Portugal, Ireland, Italy & Spain  will be pressured to do the same?
The imponderables and moving parts are far too many?
Assuming , default do take place, post default, how will the Drachma be accepted?
It is easy  for Roubini to shoot off a figure -- 30% depreciation he guess, to the Euro -- but, in truth nobody knows how the market will price the Drachma to the Euro. What if the value collapses to 20%; there will be heperinflation, since the Greek govt will have to print alot more, inorder to pay the debts.
Also at the moment, the Greek govt can sell her assets in Euros and settle her debts in Euros. To sell in Drachmas will mean a huge haircut for her prized national assets, it could be lelong time !!

From the sidelines, it is easy to comment, but policymakers on the hotseat may not want to or have the gumption to take those risks!!

A plea for an orderly divorce may not necessarily result in one, when you have so many partners in the Eurozone and the Troika to please and the markets have so many promiscous 'shorts' ready to rape you, the minute you turn naked when the tides go down....

No comments:

"Wisdom is purified by virtue and virtue is purified by wisdom. Where one is, so is the other."