PMI news.... China & Japan

China's PMI 

CFLP
This is the Official Index

We will be awaiting this mths index tommorow
Last Mth's Index
http://www.lifunggroup.com/eng/knowledge/research/PMI_september11.pdf

2010       PMI

Mar           53.4

Apr           52.9

May          52.0

Jun           50.9

Jul            50.7

Aug          50.9

PMI increased after 4 successive mths of decline.New orders index was 51.1% indicating expansion (mainly from F&B, IT & Comms, Tabacco)New export orders index declined to 48.3% in August, compared to 50.4% in July (i.e. in contraction)
So clearly, domestic consumption is driving that growth.

The Input prices index was 57.2% in August, showing that input prices continued to rise.

Cost pressure on manufacturers was still intense.

Employment index was 50.4% in August (vs 50.5% in July)

HSBC

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=8596


1) Held steady at 49.9%

- signalling a negligible rate of deterioration in manufacturing sector operating conditions .
________________________

Updates 01/10/2011

http://www.lifunggroup.com/eng/knowledge/research/PMI_october11.pdf
2010       PMI

Mar           53.4

Apr           52.9

May          52.0

Jun           50.9

Jul            50.7

Aug          50.9
Sept         51.2

Surprisingly the Sept figure increased further to 51.2% indicating that China's PMI

was expanding in a steady manner

New Orders index was 51.3% in September ( vs 51.1% in Aug)
New Export Orders index rebounded to 50.9% in September (vs 48.3% in Aug)
Input Prices index declined to 56.6% in September (vs 57.2% in Aug)
Employment index was 51.0% in September (vs 50.4% in Aug)

CFLP Index is much positive than I have expected.
The coming year end festivities is expected to cause an increase in exports but the Euroland crisis was expected to have an opposing effect. The New Export Orders index suggests that Exports did benefit despite the gloom in the debt markets and is IMHO, a very positive outcome!!

"September final PMI still stays below 50, but shows some signs of stabilising. This implies that although the lagged effects of credit tightening will continue to cool industrial activity in the months ahead, there is little need to worry about a sharp slowdown. Despite the global slowdown, we expect China's economic growth to hold up at around 8.5-9% in the coming years."
2) HSBC believes a PMI reading of as low as 48 in China still points to annual growth of 12-13 %  in industrial output and a 9% expansion in GDP.



Japan's PMI

Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=8595
Manufacturing production declines for the first time in five months􀂃 Falling new business behind drop in output

􀂃 New export orders decline at fastest rate since April

􀂃 Input price inflation remains strong

Alex Hamilton, economist at Markit and author of the report said:

"Japan’s manufacturing sector recovery stalled in September, with production falling for the first time in five months, in response to fewer new order intakes. With the yen remaining strong and global demand conditions sluggish, exporters felt the brunt of the slowdown, with overseas sales falling at the sharpest rate since April.

"Combined with a marked decline in existing workloads, falling levels of production and new business bodes ill for the employment situation going forward."