Thursday, September 29, 2011

PARD/ CFG (Pacific Andes Resources Dev & China Fishery Group)

Old Posts from CNA Forum

Some of the old posts I managed to salvage from the old CNA Forum before they did the switch.

Yr 2010

Alaskan Pollock (AP) Operation & Updates...
Russian scientists have indicated that the (Russia) quota for Alaska Pollock could increase by 200k mt to 1.7mil mt in 2010
Russian stocks in Sea of Okhotsk rising whilst US stocks in Bering Sea & Aleutian Islands dropping..
Note Russia/Far East supplies likely accounts for 63% of world total AP... in 2009..
Price chart trending up

Peruvian Fishmeal Opns Effect of El Nino..
Catch volumes may drop as anchovies stay deeper in warmer waters..
and Purse seine fishing only skims the surface..
price may rise however due to lower supply..
Price chart trending up..

Chilean Jack Mackerel (CJM) Updates
6 vessels to be deployed
5 fishing supertrawlers & 1 factory vessel

Potential ...
Max based on factory vessel
1500 mt/day based on max freezing capacity
Current FOB price for Jack Mackerel is US$750/mt.
Assume 8 active months of fishing... Mar to Oct/Nov every year
we have 1500 mt/day x USD 750/mt x 8 mths x 30 days
= USD 270 mil per yr..... OR 360,000 mt/yr

Max based on supertrawler capacities
5 x 150mt/day x USD 750/ mt x 8 mths x 30 days
= USD 135 mil per yr....or 180,000 mt/yr
Super trawlers will be limiting w/o the factory ship...
With factory ship, supertrawlers can make 2 trips per day to the factory, hence factory becomes the limiting factor...
The figures estimated compares well with those in report below, based on 4 trawlers & 1 factory vessel..

Conservative estimate ...
say only 50% potential realised ...
Take USD 270 mil/yr x 50%... = USD 135 mil
Net Profit
assume net margins of 20% (much less than AP) & we have a potential net profit contribution of0.2 x USD 135 mil
= USD 27 mil.... due to CJM alone..
So FY 2010 onwards, profits at PAH/CFG may takeoff, if all goes well...
Nice map showing migration patterns of CJM..

Debt maturity
Debt maturity Profiles summarized..
60% due to Senior Notes due in Dec 2013
17% short term loans due on 2010 easily covered by reccuring Op Profits
CFG Gearing is 0.89 times..
PAH Gearing to improve Post rights
PAH gearing drops to 0.6 from 0.9, post the rights issue..
Institutional resistance due to gearing overhang should no longer factor after the rights issue...
Will the stocks PAH/CFG climb as a result...?

2010 PEs
CFG 4.5
PAH 3.6
Both does not include CJM, AP & fishmeal updated projections...

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